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The next 100 years April 18, 2009

Filed under: books,Economy,Video — Bertil Snel @ 21:57

41-nfq85byl_bo2204203200_pisitb-sticker-arrow-clicktopright35-76_aa240_sh20_ou01_Most people find it difficult to predict what they will have for dinner tonight – George Friedman has a stab at the next 100 years.

George pulls a few surprises and interesting suggestions. Consider these:

2020 – fragmentation of China.
2050 – Global war between US, Turkey, Poland and Japan (the new world powers)
2080 – “Space based energy” powers the world
2100 – Mexico challenges the US

Mind you, George Friedman is not your average Nostradamus. George is chief intelligence officer and founder of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor), a private intelligence agency whose clients include foreign government agencies and Fortune 500 companies.

Without giving away too many clues of the book a number of other predictions:

– The US will remain the prime global power throughout the next century.
– Wars will be less deadly and fought in space rather then on earth.
– Turkey and Japan will become regional powerhouses as Russia and China decline.
– The US will develop three space-based weapons platforms, which Friedman calls “Battle Stars”
– By 2050, Friedman sees Japan pulling a Pearl Harbor-esque strike against the Battle Stars

The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.


No crisis in Enterprise Software? March 30, 2009

Filed under: Analysts,Economy,Enterprise Software,Facts — Bertil Snel @ 21:09

Graph going up

Press release from Gartner today: Gartner Says Worldwide Enterprise Software Market to Experience Flat Growth in 2009

In short, Gartner predicts that in 2009 the Global enterprise software market will grow 0,3% (flat) from 2008. The size of the market is almost the same as the GDP of Portugal with $222.8 billion. Gartner predicts flat growth this and next year.

I am somewhat surprised, not necessarily because I see a different reality but more so because almost every other bit of market data points to negative growth. The reality as it seems is that the enterprise software market is relatively strong because it experienced a big shake-out in 2001/2 and because the software increasing deliver on its promise of improved ROI. Especially market areas like virtualisation, open source and SaaS.

Not surprisingly Gartner points to the importance of strong partnerships for enterprise software vendors. “Aligning with partners that can provide local knowledge or industry insight will be a considerable differentiator.”. We’ll take that to heart.

By the way, first day of spring and the weather is great. I expect more good news about the crisis these days – hard to be pessimistic.


The Crisis of Credit Visualized March 15, 2009

Filed under: Economy,Facts,Video — Bertil Snel @ 10:28

The Short and Simple Story of the Credit Crisis.

Click more for part 2



How bad are recessions? February 28, 2009

Filed under: Economy,Image — Bertil Snel @ 08:08

I am sure we all worry about our the current economic climate. Yesterday we learned that the US has seen been in an ecomomic decline of more then 6% last quarter. Of course this causes a lot of suffering with companies and individuals. But how bad is it in the long run? The graph below pains a reassuring picture. Past recenssions hardly made a dent in the long-term upward growth in the GDP of the US.